The following report looks at the projected sales forecasts for Kroger, Shoprite , and Whole Foods. These were created by SalesForekast™, the new forecasting that provides projections based on correlations with macroeconomic indicators.
For this analysis, we are using the stock code for Village Super Market as a proxy for Shoprite, acknowledging that Village Super Market has 29 stores operating under the Shoprite banner, of a total of 337 Shoprite stores.
Kroger ($KR), Whole Foods ($WFM) , and Shoprite ($VLGEA) have each seen varying levels of success over the past few years with three different models. Kroger, battling with the likes of Amazon and Wal-Mart ($WM), remains the largest pure grocery chain in the United States. Whole Foods, recently bought by Amazon, has been a catalyst to the growing natural and organic trend. Finally, ShopRite continues to perform well regionally in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Here are a few interesting reference facts about these brick and mortar supermarket chains:
Whole Foods focuses on organic and natural food products. Amazon recently acquired the firm for $13.7 billion.
Village Super Market has seen steady growth over the last quarter. The firm had sales of $392 million with comparable-store sales increasing by 1.1% in the quarter.
SalesForekast™analysis suggests that Kroger and Shoprite will continue their steady growth trends, with Shoprite appearing to be on a path to increase at a faster rate.
Kroger and Shoprite correlate well with GDP, personal expenditures, and e-commerce sales. As the economy rises, both are likely to see an increase in sales.
In comparison, Shoprite correlates with ‘total business inventories’ as a leading indicator. This differs from Kroger where ‘final sales of motor vehicles to domestic purchases’ acts as a leading indicator. Leading indicators suggest that changes in macroeconomic indicators affects sales in the following quarter.
Whole Foods does not correlate well with macroeconomic factors. Due to this, SalesForekast™ projects a great degree of uncertainty.
Whole Foods is likely affected by other market factors, including intense competition in the growing natural and organic areas and expansion into general merchandising categories. The recent acquisition by Amazon may further exacerbate this uncertainty.
See below for the Salesforekast™ reports for the each supermarket chain:
SalesForekast™ projects Kroger to perform just above the best-fit line maintaining a slow growth rate. Kroger’s success will likely depend on competition, especially after Whole Foods acquisition.
SalesForekast™ projects Shoprite to perform slightly better than their best-fit line. The firm is expected to maintain steady growth over the following quarters.
SalesForekast™ correlates historical sales or market capitalization data with over 30 selected macroeconomic indicators to project data for future quarters based on the forecasts for the macroeconomic indicators that drive the company’s sales or market cap.