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Kroger Company (NYSE: KR) | Sales Projections & Industry Trends

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The Kroger Co. is one of the largest chains of supermarkets in the US with nearly 2800 stores. It has some manufacturing and food processing facilities for sales in its stores as well. Kroger sells fuel in about half of its locations. It has started home delivery services in several cities. Kroger has, in recent surveys, the highest level of customer satisfaction among competitors.

While its sales have continued to grow, its share price, which had been growing steadily, has seen a drop of over 40% since the beginning of 2016.This appears to be on increasing worries about brick and mortar business models. Kroger was especially hit when Amazon announced its bid for whole foods.

Kroger sales are highly correlated with employment levels – whether in the Service Sector, Manufacturing, Government or Agriculture. This is to be expected as increasing employment levels should result in higher spending at the supermarket.

SalesForekast™ projects Kroger to perform below the best fit line thus it should expect slower growth.

Note: SalesForekast™ can similarly graph forecasts for other supermarket chains to provide a competitive view. Sign up at app.salesforekast.com/account/register for a 14-Day Free Trial for further access to these reports.

Shoprite (Village Super Market - NASDAQ: VLGEA) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

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For this analysis, we are using the stock code for Village Super Market as a proxy for Shoprite, acknowledging that Village Super Market has 29 stores operating under the Shoprite banner, of a total of 337 Shoprite stores.

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Village Super Market, Inc. operates a chain of supermarkets in the United States. Its stores feature specialty departments, such as on- site bakery, an expanded delicatessen, various natural and organic foods, ethnic and international foods, prepared foods, and pharmacies. The company operates 29 ShopRite supermarkets in New Jersey, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Village Super Market was founded in 1933 and is based in Springfield, New Jersey.

Village Super Market sales are correlated with real GDP, personal expenditures, and e-commerce sales. As the economy rises, Village Super Market is likely to see an increase in sales.

SalesForekast™ projects Village Super Market to perform slightly better than their best-fit line. The firm is expected to maintain steady growth over the following quarters.

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Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to import your own data. This enables you to enter private company data, or even sales data on specific products or divisions of companies. SalesForekast™ provides the same analysis whether you import data or search for public companies.

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Amazon.com, Inc. was the first online market place and today has an estimated 70% market. Amazon Prime is their subscription service that provides additional value such as two-day free shipping. The company sells merchandise and content purchased for resale from vendors. In some circumstances, it does enable third parties to sell their products on Amazon.com.

Sales and shares prices have grown rapidly. AMZN sales are highly correlated with economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As the economy and employment improve, Amazon.com is likely to grow. The forecast shows that the growth is likely to accelerate as the forecasts are above the best fit line.

 

Amazon.com (AMZN) correlates with the above macro-economic indicators. 

Amazon.com (AMZN) correlates with the above macro-economic indicators. 

Amazon.com continues to expand and diversify with both the acquisition of Whole Foods and the tie-in with Sears to sell Kenmore appliances. 

SalesForekast™ projects AMZN to grow at a rate slightly better than the best-fit line continuing their historical growth trends. This is likely to depend on the company continuing to launch new and exciting products.

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Amazon.com (AMZN).

SalesForekast™ projections for Amazon.com (AMZN).

SalesForekast™ correlates historical sales or market capitalization data with over 30 selected macroeconomic indicators to project data for future quarters based on the forecasts for the macroeconomic indicators that drive the company’s sales or market cap.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

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Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. It operates 11,695 stores under 59 banners in 28 countries and e-commerce Websites in 11 countries. A key to its success has been exceptionally good supply chain management.  It is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas.

Sales have flattened in recent quarters. Wal-Mart sales are highly correlated with economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As the economy and employment improve, Wal-Mart is likely to grow. 

 

Wal-Mart (WMT) correlates with the above macro-economic indicators.

Wal-Mart (WMT) correlates with the above macro-economic indicators.

 

However, SalesForekast™ projects Wal-Mart is likely to grow at a rate lower than the best-fit line indicating slower than historical growth expectations. Key will be Wal-Mart’s success at continuing to grow its e-commerce business. 

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Wal-Mart (WMT).

SalesForekast™ projections for Wal-Mart (WMT).

Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. Further, you have access to FRED, the national data base, with over 500,000 data tables. This allows you to quickly look at which other factors drive a business and build your personal view.

Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Southwest Airlines Co. is a low cost provider operating in the United States and near-international markets. As of end 2016, the company operated a total of 723 Boeing 737 aircraft; and served 101 destinations in 40 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as 8 near-international countries. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. 

Southwest believes in leveraging technology and is fresh off a $500 million update to its 30-year-old reservations system. Further it is developing a strategic plan that maps out the airline’s technology vision for the next several years. 

Sales and shares prices have grown steadily. Southwest Airlines sales are highly correlated with economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As the economy further develops, Southwest is likely to see a continuing increase in sales. 

 

Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

 

SalesForekast™ projects Southwest to grow at a rate slightly lower than the best-fit line, but continue on a growth trend. This is likely to depend on Southwest maintaining market penetration, continuing to implement low-cost strategies and increase penetration of air travel in the population.  

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV)

SalesForekast™ projections for Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE: LUV)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ allows access to FRED, a national data base, with over 500,000 data tables. This allows you to quickly look at which other factors drive a business and build your personal view.

Spirit Airlines Inc (NASDAQ: SAVE) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Spirit Airlines, Inc. provides low-fare airline services. As of early 2017, it operated approximately 420 daily flights to 59 destinations in the United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America. It offers tickets through its call centers, airport ticket counters, on line through www.spirit.com and through various third parties. The latter include the on-line travel agents and global electronic distribution systems. Spirit Airlines, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

Sales and shares prices have grown steadily. Spirit Airlines’ sales are highly correlated with economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As the economy further develops, SAVE is likely to see an increase in sales.

 

Spirit Airlines Inc (NASDAQ: SAVE) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

Spirit Airlines Inc (NASDAQ: SAVE) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

 

SalesForekast™ projects Spirit Airlines to grow at a rate slightly lower than the best-fit line, but continue on a growth trend. Growth will likely depend on Spirit Airlines’s continuing their growth strategy by offering low-fare services. 

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Spirit Airlines Inc (NASDAQ: SAVE).

SalesForekast™ projections for Spirit Airlines Inc (NASDAQ: SAVE).

 

The recent point of concern has been the contentious ongoing labor negotiations with the company's pilots. This has recently hurt the company’s stock price.

Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. This feature enables the testing of market sensitivities and can help determine how they shape company forecasts.

Delta Air Lines, INC (NYSE: DAL) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. It was founded in 1924 with headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. As of early 2017, the company operated a fleet of approximately 800 aircraft. 

Describing Delta, and increasing their holding,  Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski noted that (Delta Airlines has)  "A culture driven by respect for customers and employees blended with shrewd capital management … and …has transformed Delta into one of the largest, safest and most profitable airlines in the world". 

Delta Air Lines experienced a major sales growth followed by a period of lower revenues. DAL is highly correlated with the following macroeconomic indicators:

  • Employment Levels in various sectors
  • Personal Consumption, including health care
  • GDP
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

 

SalesForekast™ projects Delta Air Lines to grow at a rate lower than the best-fit line, and remaining largely flat over the next three years. Delta’s future revenue gains are highly uncertain – though the market predicts stronger growth

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL)

SalesForekast™ projections for Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. This feature enables the testing of market sensitivities and can help determine how they shape company forecasts.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Ford Motor Company sales have shown an upward trend, though in recent periods, North American sales have been slower than expected. Analysts largely give it a hold or buy.

SalesForekast™ found that Ford sales correlate well with Service employment, GDP, and Non-residential, infrastructure investment. Since economic factors are generally expected to improve, the forecast is above the best fit line. 

The Highly Correlated Macroeconomic Indicators were:

  • E-Commerce Retail Sales
  • Real Gross Domestic Product
  • Service Level Employment
  • Commercial Expenditures

 

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

SalesForekast™ projections for Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

SalesForekast™ projections for Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

Note: SalesForekast™ can similarly graph market capitalization projections with the same macroeconomic indicator analysis. You can also do the same for competitors GM and Chrysler – where the share price of all three appears to follow a similar trend. Sign up at app.salesforekast.com/account/register for a 14-Day Free Trial for further access to these reports. 

United Parcel Services, Inc (NYSE: UPS) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

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United Parcel Service, Inc., the package delivery company, provides a range of services in 220 countries and territories. Its sales and stock price have been steadily improving. The market capitalization is approaching $100 billion. Interestingly, this is one of three stocks that Warren Buffet recommends for a multi-decade hold. The others being Apple and J&J.   

UPS sales are closely correlated to the basic economic indicators

  • Employment levels in various sectors
  • Personal consumption, especially health care
    • Note: The new UPS venture of locating at health care centers to provide specific services required by this vertical 
  • GDP and E-Commerce sales, which have been growing double digit, and a major driver of parcel services growth in general.

 

United Parcel Services, Inc (NYSE: UPS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

United Parcel Services, Inc (NYSE: UPS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

SalesForekast™ projects UPS to perform better than their best fit line and steadily increase. E-Commerce is projected to maintain a high growth rate over the next 3 years and will strongly help UPS sales. 

 

SalesForekast™ projections for United Parcel Services (NYSE: UPS)

SalesForekast™ projections for United Parcel Services (NYSE: UPS)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ can similarly graph market capitalization projections with the same macroeconomic indicator analysis. You may also want to look at the analysis for FedEx.  Sign up at app.salesforekast.com/account/register for a 14-Day Free Trial for further access to these reports. 

Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

The Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer targeting the DIY segment as well as contractors.  It operates nearly 2300 stores in North America. Sales and share price have been steadily growing, partially due to new store openings. Traditionally this segment has been seen to be more resistant to E-commerce because its sales are driven by higher ticket items. However, the recent tie-up between Sears (for its Kenmore brand) and Amazon resulted in a decline in share price for this company.

Sales of The Home Depot are highly correlated with employment levels in various sectors. Manufacturing employment is, in fact, a leading indicator for sales of The Home Depot. This implies that Home Depot sales are affected in the quarter following a change in manufacturing employment trends.

 

Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

 

SalesForekast™ projects Home Depot to grow slightly slower than their best fit line. Although sales revenue is forecasted to increase steadily over the next few quarters, Home Depot may find it difficult to keep up with historical growth. This may be a result of difficulties expanding through new stores.

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD)

SalesForekast™ projections for Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ can similarly graph market capitalization projections with the same macroeconomic indicator analysis. Sign up at app.salesforekast.com/account/register for a 14-Day Free Trial for further access to these reports.

NIKE Inc. (NYSE: NKE) | Sales Forecasts & Market Trends

NIKE, Inc., designs, develops, markets, and sells primarily athletic footwear worldwide, but has expanded into apparel, equipment, and accessories as well. It drives sales by focusing on high-performance products, a steady stream of new products and has built very strong associations with world-class athletes. 

Sales and shares prices have grown steadily. Nike sales are highly correlated with economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As the economy and employment increases, Nike is likely to see an increase in sales. E-commerce is important for Nike. 

 

NIKE Inc (NYSE: NKE) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

NIKE Inc (NYSE: NKE) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

 

SalesForekast™ projects Nike to grow at a rate slightly lower than the best-fit line, but continue on a growth trend. This is likely to depend on the company continuing to launch new and exciting products. 

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE)

SalesForekast™ projections for Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. This feature enables the testing of market sensitivities and can help determine how they shape company forecasts. Further, you have access to FRED, the national data base, with over 500,000 data tables. This allows you to quickly look at which other factors drive a business and build your personal view.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Dollar General Corporation is one of the largest discount retailers and provides various merchandise including food products, other consumables, seasonal products other lower ticket items. Currently, it operates about 13,600 stores located in 44 states. DG has been focused on its store acquisitions program, better price management, merchandise initiatives and cost containment.

Dollar General is correlated with all basic employment indicators primarily around the employment indicators. Manufacturing employment is a leading indicator suggesting that Dollar General is impacted by this indicator in the following quarter.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) correlates with the above economic indicators.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) correlates with the above economic indicators.

 

SalesForekast™ projects Dollar General to grow in sales over the next few quarters but at rates lower than historical represented by their best fit line. This may partially be due to a rising economy where Dollar General may lose to competition. Further, reductions in SNAP benefits will hamper Dollar General performance as people with low income will have less money to spend and could restrict spending to low margin products. 

 

SalesForekast™ projections for Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)

SalesForekast™ projections for Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)

 

SalesForekast™ correlates historical sales or market capitalization data with over 30 selected macroeconomic indicators to project data for future quarters based on the forecasts for the macroeconomic indicators that drive the company’s sales or market cap.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. 

FedEx sales are correlated with the basic economic indicators such as employment, personal consumption, and GDP. E-Commerce sales are projected to grow greatly over the next 3 years and should help FedEx sales. 

 

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

 

SalesForekast™ projects FedEx to perform better than their best fit line and steadily increase. Over the next few quarters, personal consumption levels are likely to shape FedEx's growth rate through positive correlation.

 

SalesForekast™ projections for FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX)

SalesForekast™ projections for FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX)

FedEx stock has performed well over the past several years (except for 2015). Currently, The Dow Transports, as a whole, are performing well. You can use SalesForecast to correlate indexes such as Dow Transports as well. This gives you better insight as to which economic factor drive the index. 

Note: SalesForekast™ also allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. This feature enables the testing of market sensitivities and can help determine how they shape company forecasts. 

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

CVS provides integrated pharmacy health care services. Through its Pharmacy Services, it offers benefit management solutions, such as plan design and administration, formulary management, Medicare Part D services, mail order, specialty pharmacy and infusion services, among others.  Here it serves employers, unions, government, etc. It has 9700 stores and or 1000 locations for its medical clinics.

CVS sales are highly correlated with the basic economic indicators: employment, personal consumption, and GDP. As expected its correlation is very high with Health Care consumption – for which it is a leading indicator. It is also a leading indicator for other consumption factors and even GDP. Overall as the economy improves CVS sales should increase. CVS’s share price has struggled since 2014 due to a variety of factors – key being the competition from e-commerce.

 

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

 

SalesForekast™ projects CVS to perform better than their best-fit line. This can be partially attributed to the high expected growth rates of E-Commerce Retail Sales and generally expected improvement in the economy.  

 

SalesForekast™ projections for CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS)

SalesForekast™ projections for CVS Health Corporation (NYSE: CVS)

 

Note: SalesForekast can similarly graph market capitalization projections with the same macroeconomic indicator analysis. Sign up at app.salesforekast.com/account/register for a 14-Day Free Trial for further access to these reports.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

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Costco sales are highly correlated with employment levels: manufacturing, services, agriculture, and government.  As employment increases, consumers are able to purchase more basic goods, including groceries. All significant indicators are coincidental – which means that Costco sales are impacted by market trends in the same quarter.

Over the last few quarters, Costco’s growth has slowed. This appears to be in line with the brick & mortar retail sector as a whole since on-line sales continue to accelerate. The recent Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods seems to have hurt Costco’s share price.

 

CostCo Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ: COST) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

CostCo Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ: COST) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators. 

 

SalesForekast™ projects Costco to perform worse than their best fit line and remain flat over the next several quarters. This can be correlated with the relatively flat projected growth rates of the market indicator that have a high correlation with Costco sales.   

SalesForekast™ projections for Costco Wholesales (NASDAQ: COST)

SalesForekast™ projections for Costco Wholesales (NASDAQ: COST)

 

Note: SalesForekast™ allows you to change the projected growth rate of macroeconomic indicators. This feature enables the testing of sensitivities and can help determine how they shape company forecasts.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) | Sales Projections & Market Trends

Caterpillar sales have been declining for a little over four years with an uptick earlier this year. This had been driven by the slowdown in sales to China and, to a lesser extent, to Latin America. Cost management efforts have seen the share price increase significantly since the lows in early 2016. 

Since North America is about 50% of the company’s sales, the US economic indicators should have an impact. However, the high correlation with coal mining appears to be incidental as both have been declining over this period. In any case, the correlation here is just above the 0.85 minimum. The high correlation with money supply may have more impact on the purchase of CAT’s high ticket items. 

 

Caterpillar INC (NYSE: CAT) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

Caterpillar INC (NYSE: CAT) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

 

It is interesting that SalesForekast™ does project a turnaround in CAT sales – but they are more likely to remain flat. The turnaround may be much more substantial if there is significant spending on infrastructure as proposed by the new administration. 

SalesForekast™ projection for Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT)

SalesForekast™ projection for Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT)

 

The results of the forecast suggest that there maybe other factors that have an impact on Caterpillar sales. The SalesForekast™ software allows the user to import a wide range of indicators directly from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) to determine what else may have high correlation and greater impact on future forecasts.

1-800-Flowers.Com (NASDAQ: FLWS) | Sales Projection & Market Trends

1-800-Flowers.com is an online service for Flowers and Foods for Celebratory Occasions. It has seen slow, but steady growth over the last three years – which includes the jump in sales with the acquisition of Harry & David, near the beginning of 2015.

The company’s sales are highly correlated with most employment market indicators: service, government, manufacturing, and agriculture – thus as employment rises, FLWS sales are expected to increase. An actionable learning from this analysis is that most of these are leading indicators. Meaning, when employment in these sectors increases, 1-800-Flowers.com sales will go up in the following quarter. This should help the company in its planning and should also be of interest to investorsLeading macroeconomic indicators imply that these market trends will affect company sales in the following quarter.

 

1-800-Flowers.Com (NASDAQ: FLWS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

1-800-Flowers.Com (NASDAQ: FLWS) correlates with the above macroeconomic indicators.

 

Further, SalesForekast™ projects that FLWS will perform better than their best-fit line since the forecast is for employment levels to increase. Note: Users have the ability to change forecasts for these indicators and get a feel for sensitivity to such changes. (This, of course, assumes that other factors remain the same; e.g. no acquisitions or geographic expansion.)  

 

SalesForekast™ projection for 1-800-Flowers.Com (NASDAQ: FLWS)

SalesForekast™ projection for 1-800-Flowers.Com (NASDAQ: FLWS)

 

SalesForekast™ correlates historical sales or market capitalization data with over 30 selected macroeconomic indicators to project data for future quarters based on the forecasts for the macroeconomic indicators that drive the company’s sales or market cap.